Discussions to form coalitions in the provincial governments between the winners and losers are almost over. As no party won the majority they need each other in order to effectively run the provinces and watching how this plays out is somewhat fascinating.
Almost immediately after the first indications hinted at a Maliki victory the secular ex-Ba'athist Allawi who chose to stay in opposition because he couldn't stand UIA policies on many issues, including federalism, was seen cosying up with the Islamist Hakim who is still dreaming of an autonomous oil-rich south. The Sadrists, still bearing the scars from Maliki's relentless onslaught against the Mehdi Army in the Spring of 2008, have decided to be on Maliki's team.
It is precisely this weird dynamic nature of Iraqi politics, I think, that makes Iraq such an interesting subject for foreign scholars. For some Iraqis its just downright funny. The Iraqi Army, on direct orders from its Commander-in-Chief, spent three months last year fighting, and more importantly defeating, the "outlaws" (a fancy name Maliki decided to give the Sadrist Mehdi Army) in Basra, Baghdad and Amara but now the Sadrists are willing to form coalitions in the south just for the sake of seeing Hakim on the losing side. Allawi who was given harsh treatment, to put gently, by Hakim's followers has suddenly decided it would be a good thing to work with Hakim.
Perhaps these rounds of negotiations show that rivalry between the Sadrists and Hakims has previously been underestimated. It is true that the Mehdi Army has clashed with the Badr Brigade on previous occasions, most spectacularly in Kerbala when the Sadrists tried to take over the shrines, but these clashes could be seen as petty when compared to the battle, or rather war, that raged between Maliki and Sadr's Mehdi Army.
When the Mehdi Army burnt down the offices of Badr and Hakim across Iraq the Badr gunmen inside the buildings were given strict orders to evacuate and offer no resistance. The rivalry between Sadr and Hakim must now be so bitter that Sadr prefers to join Maliki, the man who destroyed the Mehdi Army, and ignore Hakim, the man who has shown restraint and caution towards the Mehdi Army.
Although the Sadrists were beaten by Hakim in some of the southern provinces they will be able to effectively marginalise SIIC once they complete the deal with Maliki. It will be back to the drawing board for Hakim and rumours are already spreading about plans to undercut the local provinces with social welfare programmes. Also the $2.4 billion allocated to the provincial authorities will need to be cleared through the Finance Ministry, which is controlled by SIIC.
Maliki and Sadr will need to be careful to make sure they do not step on SIIC's toes because no one knows what will happen if they are pushed into a corner. There is fresh talk of assassinations and newly discovered "Nejadiyat" (named after the Iranian President) IED's in Najaf and the last thing anyone, not least Maliki himself, needs is bloodshed. Although that is highly unlikely to be the work of the high ranking officials in SIIC the fear is from rogue elements in the party and disgruntled players who may not necessarily take their orders from Baghdad.
News
Monday, February 23, 2009
Friday, February 13, 2009
New Era
The provincial election results seem for the most part to be a vote of confidence for Maliki who managed to defeat Hakim in all the provinces previously controlled by SIIC. Maliki managed to gain Basra from the Fadheela party and also Maysan from the Sadrists.
Strangely though Kerbala, the only province Maliki's party had previously controlled was lost to Yusif Haboobi, an independent candidate, but Maliki is not going to worry too much about losing a province when he just gained 9 others.
Throughout 2008 I heard from many people who had simply had enough of SIIC and their direction, policy and attitude. Many of those I spoke to predicted that Hakim would lose a few provinces but no one predicted that this would happen. The results came as a complete shock to everyone in Iraq, not least to members of SIIC and the Hakim family.
The most embarrassing defeat for SIIC seems to be Najaf, Hakim's birthplace and what was once his power base in the south. This defeat is not only shocking because Najaf has always been historically linked with the Hakim family but because Najaf was one of the few cities in Iraq where the provincial government actually provided many services for the people.
The reconstruction of Najaf by Governor As'ad Abu Gilal and his Deputy Hassan Abdan (both members of SIIC) was used as a model by the other provinces because Najaf set the bar at a higher standard. New roads, schools, hospitals, bridges and even an International Airport are just some of things accomplished by the local government.
Last summer when I was coming back to Najaf from Rifa'i, a city in Dhi Qar, I asked the taxi driver whether or not we had reached Najaf and he said, in a depressing tone "Well can't you tell? Look at the roads and pavements. Of course we're in Najaf". The progress in Najaf both in terms of security and infrastructure was clear for all to see and drivers who pass by or stop in Najaf always complain about the state in their cities. So for people of Najaf to vote for Maliki instead of Hakim is a bold statement. No doubt SIIC members have been asking themselves where it all went wrong every since the initial results were published.
Parties in Iraq tried to use some very desperate measures in order to gain votes. These tactics could very well have worked 4 years ago but now the average Iraqi who receives a blanket or radiator from a political party just a week before the elections starts to question this act of charity. He or she will wonder why they did not receive this blanket last winter, or the winter before that.
Al-Forat used classic propaganda tricks to fool the public into thinking they will be the winners. A few days before election day they were broadcasting sample polls from across southern Iraq indicating that SIIC had around 50% of the votes in many of the cities. These attempts, as well as Hakim's sectarian "Ya Hussain" campaign proved to be futile.
There is a clear sign of maturity of the electorate and the success of these elections should be a lesson to all the politicians in Iraq. If these results are anything to go by then the next general elections could be a turning point in Iraq's history. The people will no longer vote for a party because it is more "Shia" or "Sunni" than another. The people want security, water and electricity (for now) and the politicians better listen up good or they will meet the same end every Governor in Iraq is about to face.
Strangely though Kerbala, the only province Maliki's party had previously controlled was lost to Yusif Haboobi, an independent candidate, but Maliki is not going to worry too much about losing a province when he just gained 9 others.
Throughout 2008 I heard from many people who had simply had enough of SIIC and their direction, policy and attitude. Many of those I spoke to predicted that Hakim would lose a few provinces but no one predicted that this would happen. The results came as a complete shock to everyone in Iraq, not least to members of SIIC and the Hakim family.
The most embarrassing defeat for SIIC seems to be Najaf, Hakim's birthplace and what was once his power base in the south. This defeat is not only shocking because Najaf has always been historically linked with the Hakim family but because Najaf was one of the few cities in Iraq where the provincial government actually provided many services for the people.
The reconstruction of Najaf by Governor As'ad Abu Gilal and his Deputy Hassan Abdan (both members of SIIC) was used as a model by the other provinces because Najaf set the bar at a higher standard. New roads, schools, hospitals, bridges and even an International Airport are just some of things accomplished by the local government.
Last summer when I was coming back to Najaf from Rifa'i, a city in Dhi Qar, I asked the taxi driver whether or not we had reached Najaf and he said, in a depressing tone "Well can't you tell? Look at the roads and pavements. Of course we're in Najaf". The progress in Najaf both in terms of security and infrastructure was clear for all to see and drivers who pass by or stop in Najaf always complain about the state in their cities. So for people of Najaf to vote for Maliki instead of Hakim is a bold statement. No doubt SIIC members have been asking themselves where it all went wrong every since the initial results were published.
Parties in Iraq tried to use some very desperate measures in order to gain votes. These tactics could very well have worked 4 years ago but now the average Iraqi who receives a blanket or radiator from a political party just a week before the elections starts to question this act of charity. He or she will wonder why they did not receive this blanket last winter, or the winter before that.
Al-Forat used classic propaganda tricks to fool the public into thinking they will be the winners. A few days before election day they were broadcasting sample polls from across southern Iraq indicating that SIIC had around 50% of the votes in many of the cities. These attempts, as well as Hakim's sectarian "Ya Hussain" campaign proved to be futile.
There is a clear sign of maturity of the electorate and the success of these elections should be a lesson to all the politicians in Iraq. If these results are anything to go by then the next general elections could be a turning point in Iraq's history. The people will no longer vote for a party because it is more "Shia" or "Sunni" than another. The people want security, water and electricity (for now) and the politicians better listen up good or they will meet the same end every Governor in Iraq is about to face.
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